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United Nations Development Programme
CMD Trainings - Analytical Techniques
LAS - Strengthening Crisis Response Capacities of the League of Arab States and Member Countries
Cairo - Egypt
07 - 10 Aug 2017
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Cairo - Egypt
The Arab region is witnessing numerous types of crises and disasters, many of which are of cross-boundary nature, thus requiring increased regional cooperation. In addition, strengthening the institutional capability to respond to crises and conflicts is critical to avoid vulnerability to conflict and natural disasters. As a response to this, the League of Arab States (LAS) worked with the European Union (EU) through a 2010 project titled “Strengthening Crisis Response Capacities of the League of Arab States”. By mid-2014, the first phase of the project was reviewed and seen as having yielded important progress. Key achievements included the creation of a Crisis Department at LAS with the necessary media monitoring as well as skills development among LAS Secretariat staff. LAS, the EU and UNDP recently agreed on a second phase of the project, which aims to further strengthen the capability of the LAS Secretariat and its Member States to provide early warning and effective responses to impending regional crises, conflicts and post-conflict situations.
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Judy Sbayti

Junior Programme Management & Operations Officer

Program Support Unit

United Nations Development Programme

RBAS - Regional Programme Division


Semiramis InterContinental Hotel
Resource Guide

Other Information


Training Course on Analytical Techniques

League of Arab States (LAS)


 Training Modules



Learning Objectives

Early Warning Systems

- Understand early warning pillars

- Develop early warning indicators in the Arab World

-Enhance LAS capacities in early warning monitoring

Risk Assessment and Quantitative Analysis

-Understand the risk assessment process

-Practice quantitative analysis on row data derived from LAS crisis room

Qualitative Analysis

- Understand conflict analysis tools

-Produce qualitative analysis

Policy Formulation

-Understand the nexus between early warning and early action

-Identify target actions for decision makers












Training Outline

Day 1



Learning Objectives


Crises in the Arab World

- Understand the typology of existing crises in the Arab World (Food security, conflict, disasters, economy etc...)

-Discuss current efforts and mechanisms intended to manage these crises


Early Warning Process

-Understand the pillars of early warning systems (Monitoring based on identified indicators, quantitative analysis, risk assessment, qualitative analysis/conflict analysis, policy options)


Early Warning Indicators

- Examine early warning indicators in other regions (Africa, Europe)

-Outline Early warning indicators of conflict and peace in the Arab World


Early Warning Partnerships: Lessons Learned from Africa (AU and ECOWAS Model)

-Explore the importance of partnerships for effective monitoring (cooperation with the African Union and with civil society organizations and other stakeholders in the Arab World)





Day 2



Learning Objectives


Introduction to Quantitative Analysis

- Understand quantitative methods and approaches

-Explore different models (Swiss; FAST - IGAD ; CEWARN)

Dr. Chahir Zaki

Data Analysis

- Identify the tools for quantitative analysis

-Practice quantitative analysis on row data and produce scientific analysis (graphs, events baseline that includes economic data, refugee flow, mortality rate, military interventions etc...)

Dr. Chahir Zaki

Risk Assessment

-Understand the phases of risk assessment

-Learn the usage of a risk assessment matrix


Introduction to Qualitative Analysis

- Explore the analytical framework that fits LAS needs (stakeholders mapping, root causes, interests and positions etc...)

- Combine qualitative and quantitative analysis

Dr. Rania Khafaga




Day 3



Learning Objectives


Situation Profile: curve of conflict; timeline of events

- Identify key events and interventions in conflicts

-Determine the stages of a conflict

Dr. Rania Khafaga

Stakeholders and Causal Analysis: conflict mapping; onion; conflict tree

- Identify actors, relationships and drivers of conflict

- Explore interest and positions of actors

-Map and unpack issues of conflict


Dr. Rania Khafaga

Country Profile: Issue Matrix

- Map emerging issues on different levels (economic, political and security issues on the national, local, regional and international levels)

Dr. Rania Khafaga


- Produce qualitative analysis

Dr. Rania Khafaga


Day 4



Learning Objectives


Scenario Building: Branch Analysis Method

- Develop best/worst case scenarios using dynamic analysis

- Identify actors on different levels (Secretary General, Member States etc…)

Karim Haggag/Amr Jowaily

Policy Formulation: Early actions

-Develop recommendations to different LAS organs and departments

- Integrate early action in policy formulation

Karim Haggag/Amr Jowaily

Policy Formulation at the AU: Lessons Learned

- Examine the AUCEWs methodology in policy response

Karim Haggag/Amr Jowaily

Wrap- Up


Karim Haggag/Amr Jowaily




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